CCR scientists develop one of the most skillful El Niño forecast models in the world
July 10, 2026
“There’s a big El Niño brewing this year, and CCR scientists have developed one of the most skillful El Niño forecast models in the world. With scientists at NOAA, [AOS] CCR Prof. Daniel Vimont developed the model to better understand how the ocean and atmosphere interact in producing El Niño events. ‘In 2023 we noticed that the model does an outstanding job simulating the seasonal evolution of El Niño events, which tend to peak around December. So, we decided to develop a realtime forecast model and document its skill. It produced a nearly spot-on forecast for the 2023-24 El Niño event nearly a year in advance.’ Vimont, together with graduate students Jaf Kongkaeo, Katelyn Reagan, Ally Vizcarra and Jack Zweifel, has recently documented the model skill and made the source code publicly available.”
Read the full Center for Climatic Research article , July 8, 2026