Tomorrow, 2 February 1999, is Groundhog Day. Since ancient times, humans have attempted to forecast future weather events. Numerous legends and weather folk lore have evolved that are based upon the behavior of animals. One such legend attempts to foretell the weather for the remainder of the winter season based on the behavior of hibernating animals on this date.
This legend also coincides with an ancient late winter festival, since yesterday is the customary halfway point of the astronomical winter season (the point is closer to Wednesday). To the ancients, this date was significant because it was one of the four Cross Quarter Days, marking an important astronomical milestone. The day is located essentially at the point half way between the winter solstice, marking the occurrence of the shortest length of daylight in the Northern Hemisphere (21 December 1998) and the spring equinox (20 March 1999), when equal lengths of daylight and darkness occur once again. Ancient Romans celebrated the beginning of spring on 5 February with a purification ceremony. The Celts in the British Isles left candles burning all night for the spirit Bridgit, inviting back spring and fertility. This date is also known as Candlemas Day, a Christian festival celebrated from as early as the 4th century AD. This religious festival is the fortieth day of Christmas, marked by the presentation and lighting of candles signifying a purification. In England, the feast of Candlemas continues to mark the beginning of spring.
The present Groundhog legend appears to have developed in northern Europe, especially in Germany, where early farmers would celebrate the day by watching for a badger to emerge from hibernation at sunrise. The legend that evolved was that if the animal emerged from its burrow after hibernation on this day and saw its shadow, it would return to hibernation, thereby indicating six more weeks of wintry weather. Most people assume that a converse holds true - if no shadow were seen, an early spring should be expected.
Other Europeans used the bear or the hedgehog as a symbol of symbolic of springtime rejuvenation. This legend was brought to this country by mid 18th century German immigrants, called the Pennsylvania Dutch. Here, the common woodchuck or North American marmot was substituted for the badger. The woodchuck or groundhog is a rodent that typically hibernates from October until February when as legend suggests, it would emerge on the morning of 2 February.
No convincing statistical evidence appears to support this belief of the prognostic capabilities of the groundhog. The only point that can be considered to have any meteorological significance is that cloud free weather conditions would be responsible for allowing a woodchuck or human to cast a shadow. Such cloud-free weather conditions in early February typically are associated with a cold mass of air that would usually send all but the hardiest resident back into a nice warm shelter.
Even today several local communities in the northern tier of states still celebrate Groundhog day with much fanfare. The exposure by the national media has been partly responsible for keeping alive interest in the Groundhog folklore. Two of the more famous groundhogs are Jimmy the Groundhog in Sun Prairie, WI (approximately 15 miles northeast of the state capital, Madison) and Punxsutawney Phil, in Punxsutawney, PA (approximately 50 miles northeast of Pittsburgh).
So regardless of what Jimmy or Phil "predicts" the beginning of astronomical spring is still six weeks away.
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Prepared by Edward J. Hopkins, Ph.D., email hopkins@meteor.wisc.edu
© Copyright, 1999, The American Meteorological Society.